What Michigan Means to the Democratic Primaries

An interesting event will take place in Michigan on January 15th. In a purely meaningless Democratic primary, Senator Clinton will be running against the formidable Mr. Uncommitted. Hillary Clinton is the only major Democratic candidate who will be on the ballot in Michigan. That is because the Senator Obama and Mr. Edwards, at the behest of the Democratic National Committee, withdrew their names from the Michigan primary. Thus, we have the prospects of Senator Clinton running unopposed in a primary that will not reward any delegates to the eventual Democratic nominee.

So why is this such an interesting primary? After all, if the Detroit Lions are playing an NFL game without a defense to oppose them, they should be able to run up the score and win by a rout. Victory should be a given, but scoring a hundred points should be guarantee. And that is the exact reason why could be such an interesting primary. Senator Clinton is playing offense without anyone playing defense in Michigan, except the venerable Mr. Uncommitted. And this is the rub; for if Mr. Uncommitted gets a significant percentage of the vote, or more embarrassingly, gets over 50% of the vote, Senator Clinton will have been humiliated in a state where she is running unopposed. How can Senator Clinton claim to be the most electable if she is not able to win a primary where she should get 100% of the vote?

Of course, the Clinton campaign knows this, which is the reason that they are kicking the campaign into overdrive—with the help of surrogates. With the help of Governor Granholm and former Governor James Blanchard, campaign operatives all over Michigan are sending out mailers, calling supporters, and going as far as holding election rallies in suburban Detroit. In effect, the Clinton campaign is running a stealth campaign to circumvent DNC rules which prohibit active campaigning in the state of Michigan by the Democratic nominees. Michigan is going to be a state-wide referendum on the viability of the Clinton campaign. If Mr. Uncommitted runs a close second, it could end up being the canary in the cage for the Hillary’s argument of electability.